Red Sox have pitching, but is it any good?

By Maureen Mullen

After trading away four-fifths of their starting rotation in a matter of days back in July, the Red Sox rebuilt their rotation in a matter of days in December and now have a plethora of starting pitchers.

They have a rotation that now includes Clay Buchholz, Rick Porcello, Wade Miley, Justin Masterson and Joe Kelly. Waiting in the wings are Brandon Workman, Matt Barnes, Edwin Escobar and Steven Wright. Waiting to break through from the minor leagues are Eduardo Rodriguez, Henry Owens and Brian Johnson.

If it were just a matter of numbers, the Red Sox would be set. Every team needs more than five pitchers to get through a season. Last season the Sox used 11 different starting pitchers. Buchholz led the staff with 28 starts, while knuckleballer Wright made just one as the Sox stumbled to a last-place finish. But even in their World Series championship season of 2013, the Sox used 11 starters.

But, that brings us to the big question: Who will be the Red Sox ace? Is he already on the roster or have the Red Sox not acquired him yet? If the latter, who is it? The Sox were $20 million and a couple of years short on their best offer to Jon Lester, a known commodity. They weren’t seriously in on the serious bidding for Max Scherzer, who went to the Nationals. What about James Shields? Will they empty the minor league of prospects for Cole Hamels? Jordan Zimmerman? Doug Fister? Stephen Strasburg?

“Starting pitchers who perform at the highest level and do so consistently and are relatively young and near their prime, those guys are hard guys to get and are valuable and cost a lot, whether it’s dollars or talent,” said general manager Ben Cherington.

“As far as starters, we’re really focused on the guys we have. Look, we always have to keep an open mind with opportunities, but we like the group we have.”

Not everyone feels as strongly.

“I give their rotation a B-/C+,” said one major league scout.

“Starting pitching looks like a bunch of No. 3s and 4s. I do not see any No. 1 or 2 starting pitchers. They will surely miss (John) Lackey and Lester. I think they can compete but are going to need a serious offense to help these guys out. Miley and Buchholz probably have the best stuff and I would not go better than No. 3 on those guys. Miley brings some innings and grit, a Jake Peavy type, though he is not a hard worker. Masterson and Kelly are good No. 4 depth and hoping for upside. Porcello has wildcard upside and has improved over the last two years. I think it’s a B-/C+ starting pitching staff. Not great but solid across the board. They will need a horse at some point, by July if they’re still in it.”

It’s not just the number of pitchers that gives a team its starting depth. It’s the quality of those pitchers.

— Buchholz, who turned 30 in August, would be expected to be the leader on the staff. Does he have the stuff? Yes. But, entering his ninth major league season – and despite throwing a no-hitter in his second major league start -- he has yet to demonstrate he has the maturity or is ready to take on that responsibility. Last season he went 8-11 with a 5.34 ERA. He has yet to make 30 starts or throw 200 innings. According to fangraphs.com, the average velocity on his fastball and cutter last season was down compared to his career average. His fastball velocity has dropped steadily every year since 2010. His year-to-year ERA has seen wild fluctuations, including swings of 2.82 3.60 over the last three seasons. While we have seen the stuff that could make him an ace, he has yet to demonstrate any consistency.

— Porcello was acquired by the Sox in a trade with the Tigers in December. A first-round (27th overall) pick by the Tigers in 2007, the right-hander turned 26 in December. He matched a career high with 32 starts, going 15-13 last season, the most wins he’s recorded in six big league seasons (also the most losses), with a career-best 3.43 ERA over a career-high 204 2/3 innings, with 129 strikeouts and 41 walks. His ERA has improved every season starting with 2010. His groundball rate is 49 percent. A groundball pitcher, he should benefit from the better infield defense he will have with the Sox compared to what he had with the Tigers. He’s durable, averaging almost 31 starts and 179 innings in his career. He has been in almost constant transformation mode with his pitching style. Last season he threw fewer fastballs, curveballs, and changeups and more sliders. He led the league in hits allowed in 2012, with 226. But in 2014 he threw three complete-game shutouts, the only shutouts of his career. Porcello can be a free agent after the season, while the Sox could give him a qualifying offer and get a draft pick if he signs with another team.

— Miley, the only left-hander in the rotation – for now – was acquired in a December trade with the Diamondbacks. A first-round (supplemental, 43rd overall) pick by Arizona in 2008, Miley finished second in National League rookie of the year voting in 2012. He turned 28 in November and has averaged almost 32 starts in his three full seasons. He matched a career-high with 33 starts last season, going 8-12, with a 4.34 ERA – the worst numbers of his career – with a .317 BABIP. Miley has pitched more than 200 innings in each of his last two seasons, averaging just over 199 for his three full seasons. His ERA, WHIP and walks-per-nine innings have increased each season over the last three. But, his 8.2 strikeouts-per-nine innings ratio last season was also a career high. He threw his fastball, which averages only around 91 mph, less often last season than any other, while increasing the use of slider. He, too, is a groundball pitcher, with a 51.1 percent rate last season and 48.6 for his career.

— Masterson, who will be 30 in March, returned to the Sox in December after being traded to Cleveland at the deadline in 2009 for Victor Martinez. To re-establish himself after a down season caused by injuries, he agreed to a one-year, $9.5 million free agent deal, plus incentives. Masterson, who was a second-round pick by the Sox in 2006, had a 58.2 percent groundball rate last season, 56.6 percent over his seven-season career. Between Cleveland and St. Louis last season, he made 28 starts and has averaged 30 over the last five seasons since becoming a starter, including a league-leading 34 in 2012. Over the last two seasons, he is 21-19 with a 4.42 ERA. Last season he went a combined 7-9 (5.88). In 2013 he led the league with 17 hit batters and has hit 32 over the last two seasons. If he falters in the rotation, the Sox may decide the side-arming righty may work better out of the pen and move someone else into the rotation.

— Kelly, 26, went 4-2 with a 4.11 ERA in 10 starts after joining the Sox at the trade deadline last season. Between St. Louis and Boston, the right-hander made a career-high 17 starts. He has never pitched more than 124 innings, which he did in 2013, in his three big league seasons. He went 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA in his first five starts with the Sox before recording a win. In his first three starts, spanning 17 innings, he gave up 13 walks. He had a 54.9 percent groundball rate last season, and 52.4 for his career. He throws hard – the average velocity on his fastball is 94.7 percent, last season and for his career – and hit upper 90s consistently in his final start of the season, Sept. 27 against the Yankees at Fenway Park.

If any of them should falter, the Sox could turn to right-handers Workman (who may be better suited for the bullpen), Matt Barnes (whose workload – 136 2/3 innings, representing more than a 20 percent increase over 2013 – may have affected his performance) or any of the others on the roster or in the minor leagues.

Perhaps the Sox are not yet done. Perhaps there are still moves to be made before spring training or Opening Day or whenever. If not, this appears to be their starting rotation.

Maureen Mullen can be reached at mmullen@itemlive.com. Follow her on Twitter at @MaureenAMullen.

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